Maryam Rajavi at Einaudi Foundation: Iran’s Regime in Crisis

At a meeting hosted by the Luigi Einaudi Foundation in Italy at its headquarters, Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, attended and delivered an address.
The event was also attended by Andrea Cangini, Secretary-General of the Luigi Einaudi Foundation; Mayor Rudy Giuliani; and Senator Giulio Terzi, President of the European Union Affairs Commission in the Italian Senate.
In their remarks, the speakers examined the critical situation in Iran and the failure of the clerical regime’s survival strategy. They analyzed the extent of domestic repression, internal regime conflicts, and the decisive role of an organized resistance in bringing about political change in Iran, emphasizing the vital necessity of replacing the religious autocracy with a democratic republic based on the 10-Point Plan.
In his address, Andrea Cangini, Secretary-General of the Luigi Einaudi Foundation, stated: “Three years ago, on July 13, 2023, we presented Mrs. Rajavi’s 10-Point Plan—a vision we fully endorse and support. Among its provisions, two core principles stand out to me as fundamental and deeply essential: gender equality and the establishment of a secular government based on the separation of religion and state.”
During the session, Maryam Rajavi presented a comprehensive analysis of a regime in collapse, emphasizing that the religious dictatorship has reached an insurmountable political and economic dead end.

Key highlights of Maryam Rajavi’s address included:
• Why the political and geopolitical crisis in Iran represents the most critical challenge facing the world today, and how it will shape the future of both the region and the globe?
• What are the primary factors driving the Iranian regime’s fragility and systemic crisis?
• What are the defining features of the democratic alternative for Iran’s future, alongside the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)’s platform for a transition to democracy?

The full text of Maryam Rajavi’s speech is presented below:

Maryam Rajavi: The Clerical Regime Will Not Outlast the Uprising and Organized Resistance

The topic of this conference, focusing on the current situation in Iran, is one of the most urgent political and geopolitical challenges in the world today. There is very little doubt that change in Iran will lead to fundamental changes across the region and the world.
Right now, the ruling regime in Iran is fighting for its survival, while the Iranian people, as they showed in their uprising in January, are pushing to overthrow this regime and achieve democracy and popular sovereignty.
In recent months, some have mistakenly argued that the regime emerged stronger from the war. This claim has no political basis. Instead, it is just an echo of the regime’s own slogans and propaganda, which present its survival in the war as a sign of strength.

However, we have said from the very beginning, that foreign bombings would not lead to the fall of the regime. The overthrow of this regime can only be achieved by the people of Iran and their organized resistance.

The evidence and facts prove that the regime is caught in a dead-end. It cannot move forward, and it cannot go back.

A Systemic Crisis at the Core of the Regime

Since the start of the war on February 28, 2026, the regime has clearly used it as a shield for its own survival. By creating a wartime atmosphere, it has arrested thousands of young dissidents. It has executed many protesters as well as ten members of the PMOI. Against this backdrop, the regime has maintained the deployment of Basij militia forces on the streets for months to block any path toward popular uprisings. Concurrently, it has resorted to a series of maneuvers, including suspending its hand-picked parliament, to prevent internal factional feuds from escalating.

Since the ceasefire took effect, the instability of the regime is becoming more visible every day. This confrontation, especially over signing the memorandum of understanding with the United States, has revealed a major divide at the very top of the regime. Even during the funeral of Khamenei last week, an event that was supposed to be a show of unity, a number of regime loyalists chanted “Death to the compromisers!” against Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and threw stones at the regime’s foreign minister. Just twenty-four hours after the agreement was signed, the regime’s new supreme leader officially announced that, in principle, he held a different view.

Over this very issue, the Assembly of Experts is divided into two opposing sides. This is the body responsible for choosing the regime’s Supreme Leader. Out of its eighty-four members, sixty-one published a statement openly opposing the memorandum of understanding. This same division has spread into the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, including their commanders. Just days ago, the Supreme Leader’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards warned them against any arguments over the agreement. He openly ordered the commanders not to accuse senior regime officials of treason.

Across the country, Friday prayer leaders, who are the most important political and religious officials in each city and province, are speaking out one by one against the agreement.

At the same time, the state radio and television have become a platform to attack Khamenei’s puppet president. The rival factions are threatening to kill him or destroy the foreign ministry building. These divisions are not the start of a new problem. They are the final stage of a long decay that has spread across the entire regime. Therefore, this is not a passing crisis, nor can it be fixed. It is rooted in the foundations of the regime’s existence—from its nature to its strategy, and its policy.

Factors behind the Regime’s Fracture and Vulnerability

The question is: Why is the regime facing such deep divisions, and why is it unable to contain them?

Please allow me to point out two factors. The first factor is that Iranian society is ready to start its uprisings again. The second factor is that the supreme leader’s hegemony is now in danger.

Regarding the first factor, we must look at its basis, which is the deep conflict between the religious dictatorship and the Iranian people and their resistance.

It is constantly getting worse due to the build-up of economic, social, and environmental problems.

This conflict is the result of a sea of blood, including the execution and massacre
of one hundred thousand members of the Iranian Resistance and the killing of thousands of young protesters during successive uprisings.

Furthermore, over the past forty-eight years, the outcome of massive mismanagement and destruction has built up. Not a single political or economic demand from the different sectors of society has been answered. The fundamental rights and freedoms of an entire nation have been completely crushed.

During his thirty-seven years in power, Khamenei intensified all these problems, and ultimately ended his rule with the killing of thousands of people.

As a result, Iranian society has become an active social volcano. It has erupted in a series of continuous uprisings and has not gone quiet for four decades. The trajectory of these uprisings, erupting across hundreds of cities throughout Iran each time, makes it clear that they will eventually overpower the forces of suppression and violence, ultimately toppling the clerical regime.
This is especially true because the organized resistance and its resistance units are driving the uprisings toward the overthrow of the regime making them more organized and focused every single time.

In their accelerating progress, the resistance units evolve to units of the Liberation Army and make up the decisive force for change in Iranian society, today.

Intensifying Conflict between Ruling Factions

The conflict at the top of the regime is intensifying because one side wants to manage the broken economy to prevent the uprisings. The opposing side, however, believes that any kind of reform will only open the door for new uprisings. They argue that the only way to block protests is through war and suppression.

This is exactly why the regime has reached a complete dead end, at a crossroads between ending the war and continuing it.

The other factor driving the regime’s factions into a confrontation is the status of Khamenei’s son.

It was only by exploiting the wartime and emergency conditions following his father’s death that he was able to become the supreme leader. At least forty clerics out of the eighty-four members of the Assembly of Experts refused to vote for him.

One member of the Assembly admitted that during the session to choose the supreme leader, the votes were not even counted; instead, a senior member of the Assembly quickly glanced at the ballots and announced that “the Assembly of Experts has elected Mojtaba with a decisive majority.”

Just like the past forty-eight years, the foundation of the supreme leader’s absolute control relies on domestic suppression, the nuclear program, and exporting war and terrorism.

On this critical matter, he and a major part of the regime view even the smallest revision to this strategy as an impassable red line.

They believe that any retreat will only overthrow the regime sooner. Meanwhile, another faction insists that continuing the war is what will overthrow the regime, sooner.

A Devastated Economy and a Powerless Regime

It must be noted that this conflict at the highest levels of the regime is unfolding in a highly volatile environment, where the resurgence of popular uprisings poses an imminent threat. Consequently, since the onset of the recent war, the regime has immediately deployed its Basij militia and proxy forces, maintaining a heavy street presence for several months to suppress any potential public mobilization.

Indeed, the regime is acutely aware that the underlying drivers of a popular uprising are stronger than ever. These range from the public’s deep-seated anger and grief following the horrific massacres in January, to deep societal grievances fueled by arbitrary arrests, executions, prolonged internet blackouts, and a disastrous economic policy that has shattered the livelihoods of the population.

Regarding Iran’s economy, I would like to draw your attention to a critical reality:

The regime has wasted nearly half a century since the anti-monarchic revolution. Instead of investing in democratic development, they used this time to build nuclear programs and missile cities. As a result, Iran’s economy today is in free fall.

For years, the growth of economy has turned negative. For years, Iran’s economy has lost the ability to create jobs. Iran’s currency has become one of the weakest in the world. The country’s infrastructure has been destroyed. The environment has collapsed on various fronts. Many cities, including the capital, face severe water shortages.

A country sitting on a sea of oil and gas cannot even provide its own energy needs. By placing the economy under the control of the Revolutionary Guards, and foundations tied to Khamenei, this regime has destroyed the middle class and the independent private sector. Long experience shows that this regime is not only incapable of political reform but it is also completely unable to change or fix Iran’s economy.

As a result, even if the regime’s oil incomes surge or Iran’s frozen assets are returned, the country’s economic conditions will not improve because, as always, the lion’s share of these funds will be spent on building missiles and drones and funding the regime’s proxy forces in the region. Just three weeks ago, the regime’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, openly admitted, “We gave twenty million barrels of government oil to the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, so they could prepare themselves.” As previously declared by Shekarchi, spokesperson for the Armed Forces General Staff: “Not for a single moment since the 12-Day War has our missile production line been shut down.”

Yes, this is a fundamental principle: the regime will never abandon its nuclear bomb-making, war, and terrorism and it will never stop its arrests, executions, and continuous violations of human rights. However, it will not survive in the face of the uprisings and the organized resistance.

The democratic alternative, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, fights for the establishment of a democratic republic, which relies on popular sovereignty, separation of religion and state, gender equality, autonomy of ethnic nationalities, and abolition of the death penalty.